Event in Focus

Seminario

EconNet: Las compras de divisas esterilizadas tienen un efecto expansionista por culpa de los bancos

Fecha: 16 nov 2017

Horario: 12:00

Ubicación: 1300 New York Ave., NW, Washington, DC - Sala SE-1035, Estados Unidos de América

  

Evento abierto al público


Título: Las compras de divisas esterilizadas tienen un efecto expansionista por culpa de los bancos
Orador: Marcio Garcia, PUC Rio

Resumen (en inglés): In the most recent wave of capital inflows, 2009-2012, many emerging markets have resorted to sterilized FX purchases as a way to mitigate exchange rate appreciation. The literature on the effectiveness of sterilized FX interventions to alter the exchange rate is large and inconclusive, but there is scant mention to expansionary effects of FX sterilized purchases other than the effect of possible exchange-rate depreciation on net exports. Nevertheless, many emerging markets’ central banks have complained that the (fully sterilized) capital inflows have fueled large credit expansions, creating credit bubbles and inflation. We show that, indeed, when the banking sector is duly considered, sterilized FX purchases became expansionary, via a credit channel. The mechanism is the following: under massive sterilized FX purchases, the aggregate banking sector balance sheet increases, with the asset side absorbing the bonds used to sterilize the money expansion generated by the sterilized FX purchase. Since interest rate, the return on bonds, does not change, a portfolio balance effect stimulates banks to increase loan supply and lower their augmented bond holdings. Bond sales by the banks, to make cash to increase loans, pressure the interest rate up. To keep the interest rate from rising, the central bank increases money supply. Higher loan supply increases loans and output. In the new equilibrium, the interest rate is kept constant, while the quantity of money and loans increase, as well as output. Recent Brazilian evidence is reviewed, showing that this effect is empirically relevant. Therefore, when considering the banking sector, independently of their effect in preventing nominal appreciation, FX sterilized purchases generally boost credit, activity and inflation. 




Para mayor información: research@iadb.org


Econnet es una serie de seminarios organizados por el Departamento de Investigación y Sector de aprendizaje y conocimiento del BID. Los seminarios consisten en una serie de almuerzos donde un académico invitado presenta sus últimos hallazgos en algún tema de desarrollo relevante a América Latina y el Caribe. EconNet se lleva a cabo todos los jueves al medio día.



Eventos relacionadosComparta este evento

Enfoque

Sigue al BID en

© Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo - Derechos reservados.